How do bookmakers calculate the odds for certain games?

Bookmakers, such as LV BET , set odds before every game they allow you to bet. These are called the starting price or SP. The starting price is determined by the bookmaker's office for each particular game, taking into account every variable and factor to calculate the result of that game according to their own sources of information and records. 

Methods

There are many ways to calculate the odds for certain games. Bookmakers use several methods to do this: 

Direct calculation

Poker Utan Svensk Licens online casino bookmakers calculate the odds on the basis of their own sources of information and records, for example from player or team statistics. If you use your own formula to calculate the odds, you can be sure that everything in the formula is perfectly legal. Moreover, accurate game prediction creates levels of reliability for specific bookmakers.

Bookmaker reputation is very important for any bookmaker. If you can use your own formula to calculate the odds, if it makes sense and is profitable - why not do it? This way you will build your reputation too.

Indirect calculation

In this method the bookmaker uses the sources of information and records of other bookmakers. It is called indirect scoring, because you use odds from another bookmaker, so your own risk level is lower than with direct scoring. 

On the other hand, bookmakers don't build their own reputation, their sources of information are inaccurate because they are obtained from another bookmaker, so if there are any errors in this data, bookmakers using indirect counting will also be wrong in their calculations. Consequently, the reliability level of indirect methods is lower than that of direct methods.

What variables are used when calculating odds?

Strategy

The strategy of the players and teams is one of the main factors that determine the odds of bookmakers. If the bookmaker has access to this information before the game, or simply knows the strategies of the players and teams, this information will be included in each bookmaker's odds formula.

Statistics

There are over 100 different statistics and figures collected for each game. The bookmakers use the most important of them to calculate the odds for certain games. For instance, goals scored, shots or corners can increase or decrease a team's chances of winning a match. All performances in a particular season are taken into account, as well as past matches between teams and so on.

Bookmakers use special statistical analysis software to better calculate the odds for certain games based on statistics. For example, you can find out if corners lead to goals or not. This information is crucial for the bookmaker to decide whether to increase or decrease the odds of one team beating another.

Health status

In football, every injury is important for every team, because without well-functioning players they cannot perform as well as usual. In certain games, the odds formula of a betting shop may include information about injured or sick players from certain teams. If a key player of team A will not play due to injury, this fact will be included in each bookmaker's odds formula.

Distance between teams

Or "travel distance" is another factor which is taken into consideration when creating the formula to calculate the bookmaker's odds. Teams from different countries tend to travel farther than local teams, so their level of performance may be lower, as flying takes a lot of energy from the players. In addition, long travel distances lead to time zone changes for many players, which negatively affects their concentration and performance.

The bookies also take into account how well the team manager can organise travel for the football team or find an effective way of dealing with the deteriorating conditions in the team after the trip. 

Managers

They are not players, but their performances are crucial to team results. For instance if there is a change of coach and the players have to get used to the new one, it may also affect their performance.

Conclusion

At a betting shop it is very important to set the odds for a particular football match. It is also important to consider all the factors that may influence its result. The formula for calculating the odds takes many of them into account, so the bookmaker's decision whether to increase or decrease the probability of one team beating the other should be fair and accurate enough.

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